Diraq selected for DARPA Stage C to test scaling from 8 qubits to 2 million

【Article Title】 Diraq selected for DARPA Stage C to test scaling from 8 qubits to 2 million 【Article Body】 AI TRANSLATION This article is an AI-generated translation of the original Japanese article. For the authoritative version, please refer to the original. Read the original Japanese article → (https://quantumindex.jp/diraq-darpa-qbi-stage-c/) Diraq has been selected for Stage C, the final phase, of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). With initial funding of US$51 million, the company will work on independent validation of designs, performance, and manufacturability aimed at fault-tolerant, utility-scale quantum computers. ✍️ Quantum Index Analysis The following explains the technical and business implications behind the announcement and highlights evaluation points that are not obvious from the numbers or headlines alone. Read our独自分析 ↓ Summary of the announcement QBI is DARPA’s program to assess whether different quantum computing approaches can reach utility scale by 2033. “Utility scale” here means reaching a level where a quantum computer can solve problems whose value exceeds the costs of building and operating the machine. In the prior Stage B, Diraq developed an R&D plan including technical risks, mitigation strategies, and risk-reduction prototypes. In Stage C, Diraq will work with DARPA’s independent evaluation teams to assess the design and performance of its silicon quantum system and the capabilities required for future utility-scale systems. Over the coming months the company will perform technical demonstrations, system updates, and design work, and will also expand research infrastructure and test environments. The initial award is US$51 million to support development over the next year. QBI funding in total can reach up to US$300 million. The company says it has demonstrated high-fidelity silicon spin qubitsqubitsQubit / Quantum Bit / QubitThe basic unit of information in a quantum computer. It can represent not only 0 or 1 but also a quantum state that is a superposition of them.QI NoteHaving more qubits does not necessarily mean higher performance. Error rates, connectivity, coherence time, and the number of logical qubits are also important. manufactured in an industry-standard 300 mm CMOS-compatible process and coherent operation of an 8-qubit array produced on the same process. Diraq’s roadmap targets 150,000 qubits by 2029 and more than 2 million physical qubitsphysical qubitsPhysical Qubit / Physical QubitIndividual qubits that are physically created and manipulated on a quantum processor. They are also used to form logical qubits.QI NoteA large number of physical qubits does not by itself indicate practical computational capability. Error rates, connectivity, and the number of physical qubits required per logical qubit are also important. on a single chip by 2031, but these figures are company targets at this stage. Key points • Diraq has been selected for Stage C, the final phase, of DARPA’s QBI • An independent verification team will evaluate not only system performance but also manufacturability and cost on the path to utility scale • Initial funding of US$51 million will support development over the next year, with total QBI support up to US$300 million • Based on its demonstration of an 8-qubit array in a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process, Diraq aims for 150,000 qubits by 2029 and over 2 million physical qubits on a single chip by 2031 Technical and commercial significance On the technical side, it is significant that a third party will now assess whether the silicon spin qubit approach—leveraging existing semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure—can be scaled to utility scale. The evaluation will cover not only per-qubit performance but also system design, manufacturability, and cost. On the commercial side, up to US$300 million in public funding will help expand research facilities and test infrastructure. However, there is a large gap between demonstrating an 8-qubit array and scaling to 150,000 qubits or more than 2 million qubits on a single chip, and selection to Stage C does not guarantee those targets will be met. What to watch next The immediate focus will be the results of the Stage C technical demonstrations and what the evaluation shows about performance, manufacturability, and cost. It will be important to see whether the advantages of a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process can be preserved as systems scale from an 8-qubit array to much larger architectures. In addition, observing progress toward deployment in a shared commercial data center in Sydney by the end of 2026 and concrete intermediate results toward the 2029 150,000-qubit goal will be important milestones. ✍️ Quantum Index Analysis The notable point about Diraq’s selection for Stage C is that the company’s highly ambitious qubitqubitQubit / Quantum Bit / QubitThe basic unit of information in a quantum computer. It can represent not only 0 or 1 but also a quantum state that is a superposition of them.QI NoteHaving more qubits does not necessarily mean higher performance. Error rates, connectivity, coherence time, and the number of logical qubits are also important.-scaling roadmap will now be subject to independent DARPA validation. Diraq uses a silicon spin qubit approach that can leverage existing semiconductor manufacturing. While it has demonstrated coherent operation of an 8-qubit array manufactured in a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process, the company targets 150,000 physical qubitsphysical qubitsPhysical Qubit / Physical QubitIndividual qubits that are physically created and manipulated on a quantum processor. They are also used to form logical qubits.QI NoteA large number of physical qubits does not by itself indicate practical computational capability. Error rates, connectivity, and the number of physical qubits required per logical qubit are also important. by 2029 and more than 2 million physical qubits on a single chip by 2031. Diraq’s qubit development record and roadmap TimePhysical qubit countStatusMain details20268DemonstratedCoherent operation of a qubit array manufactured in a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process2029150,000Development targetScaling using semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure2031Over 2,000,000Development targetHigh-density integration on a single chip * The 8-qubit demonstration does not mean the array could run arbitrary quantum circuits or fault-tolerant algorithms across all 8 qubits. The 2029 and 2031 figures are future targets. Compatibility with standard semiconductor manufacturing is a major strength for Diraq. However, being able to fabricate qubits at high density and being able to operate them with high fidelity are separate challenges. For silicon spin qubits, device-to-device variability, control-signal crosstalk, and heat dissipation from control electronics at millikelvin temperatures can impede scaling. Moreover, correlated errors that emerge with high-density integration can degrade quantum error correctionquantum error correction量子誤り訂正 / Quantum Error Correction / QECA technique that distributes information across multiple physical qubits and detects and corrects errors without directly disturbing the quantum state.QI NoteSimply implementing it does not automatically provide practical fault tolerance. What matters is whether the logical error rate is improved relative to the physical error rate. performance. Even if semiconductor techniques allow integration of millions of qubits, there is no guarantee that computational performance will scale accordingly. In this context, a comparison with Atom Computing (https://en.quantumindex.jp/atom-computing-darpa-qbi-stage-c/), which was selected for the same Stage C, is instructive. The neutral-atom approachneutral-atom approachNeutral Atom Quantum Computer / Neutral Atom Quantum Computer / Neutral-Atom Quantum ComputingA quantum computing approach that traps and arranges neutral (uncharged) atoms using lasers or similar methods and uses their quantum states as qubits.QI NoteA characteristic is that many atoms can be arranged in a regular pattern relatively easily. When comparing performance, one should check not only the number of atoms but also gate fidelity, reconfiguration (rearrangement), and loss rates. used by Atom Computing has already demonstrated systems exceeding 1,200 physical qubits and has shown progress on quantum error correction. By contrast, Diraq’s published demonstrations so far are limited to an 8-qubit array, leaving a significant gap in system scale. That said, DARPA’s evaluation focuses not on current qubit counts but on whether the development plan can plausibly reach “utility scale” by 2033—i.e., deliver computational value that outweighs construction and operation costs. Why did DARPA select both Diraq, at an 8-qubit stage, and Atom Computing, with systems exceeding 1,200 qubits, for the same Stage C? Each approach faces different technical challenges and different future manufacturing and operational cost profiles. DARPA appears to have judged that Diraq’s strategy of rapid scaling leveraging CMOS manufacturing warrants independent evaluation, but that judgment is not proof the strategy will succeed. Diraq is slated to receive US$51 million in first-year funding, which will accelerate expansion of research facilities and test environments. What will matter in upcoming evaluations is not just increasing qubit counts but how gate fidelities and manufacturing yields change with scale, the extensibility of control systems, error-correction performance including correlated errors, and the total system cost. Can qubits that are manufacturable at semiconductor scale be turned into qubits usable in a quantum computer? The answer to that question will determine the success of Diraq’s roadmap. NETWORKSee Diraq’s industry network → (/qi-network/) Related coverage • Quantinuum secures US$100 million R&D contract under the U.S. CHIPS Act (https://en.quantumindex.jp/quantinuum-100-million-chips-rd-award/) • Rigetti finalizes US$100 million contract with U.S. Commerce Department to strengthen readout, cooling, and manufacturing for scaling (https://en.quantumindex.jp/rigetti-us-government-100m-superconducting-rd/) • Xanadu opens an advanced photonics manufacturing facility in Toronto, pursuing vertical integration from NISQ to FTQC (https://en.quantumindex.jp/xanadu-cad-195m-inception-photonics-facility/) Source Read the original announcement (https://www.diraq.com/newsdesk/diraq-advances-to-final-stage-of-darpas-quantum-benchmarking-initiativenbsp) If you found this article useful, please consider sharing it. ──────────────────── 【AI Evaluation Request】 Evaluate the following article critically, not based on the quality of its writing, but on its **original informational value as a specialist publication**. 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Diraq has been selected for Stage C, the final phase, of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). With initial funding of US$51 million, the company will work on independent validation of designs, performance, and manufacturability aimed at fault-tolerant, utility-scale quantum computers.

Summary of the announcement

QBI is DARPA’s program to assess whether different quantum computing approaches can reach utility scale by 2033. “Utility scale” here means reaching a level where a quantum computer can solve problems whose value exceeds the costs of building and operating the machine. In the prior Stage B, Diraq developed an R&D plan including technical risks, mitigation strategies, and risk-reduction prototypes. In Stage C, Diraq will work with DARPA’s independent evaluation teams to assess the design and performance of its silicon quantum system and the capabilities required for future utility-scale systems. Over the coming months the company will perform technical demonstrations, system updates, and design work, and will also expand research infrastructure and test environments. The initial award is US$51 million to support development over the next year. QBI funding in total can reach up to US$300 million. The company says it has demonstrated high-fidelity silicon spin qubitsqubitsQubit / Quantum Bit / QubitThe basic unit of information in a quantum computer. It can represent not only 0 or 1 but also a quantum state that is a superposition of them.QI NoteHaving more qubits does not necessarily mean higher performance. Error rates, connectivity, coherence time, and the number of logical qubits are also important. manufactured in an industry-standard 300 mm CMOS-compatible process and coherent operation of an 8-qubit array produced on the same process. Diraq’s roadmap targets 150,000 qubits by 2029 and more than 2 million physical qubitsphysical qubitsPhysical Qubit / Physical QubitIndividual qubits that are physically created and manipulated on a quantum processor. They are also used to form logical qubits.QI NoteA large number of physical qubits does not by itself indicate practical computational capability. Error rates, connectivity, and the number of physical qubits required per logical qubit are also important. on a single chip by 2031, but these figures are company targets at this stage.

Key points

• Diraq has been selected for Stage C, the final phase, of DARPA’s QBI
• An independent verification team will evaluate not only system performance but also manufacturability and cost on the path to utility scale
• Initial funding of US$51 million will support development over the next year, with total QBI support up to US$300 million
• Based on its demonstration of an 8-qubit array in a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process, Diraq aims for 150,000 qubits by 2029 and over 2 million physical qubits on a single chip by 2031

Technical and commercial significance

On the technical side, it is significant that a third party will now assess whether the silicon spin qubit approach—leveraging existing semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure—can be scaled to utility scale. The evaluation will cover not only per-qubit performance but also system design, manufacturability, and cost. On the commercial side, up to US$300 million in public funding will help expand research facilities and test infrastructure. However, there is a large gap between demonstrating an 8-qubit array and scaling to 150,000 qubits or more than 2 million qubits on a single chip, and selection to Stage C does not guarantee those targets will be met.

What to watch next

The immediate focus will be the results of the Stage C technical demonstrations and what the evaluation shows about performance, manufacturability, and cost. It will be important to see whether the advantages of a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process can be preserved as systems scale from an 8-qubit array to much larger architectures. In addition, observing progress toward deployment in a shared commercial data center in Sydney by the end of 2026 and concrete intermediate results toward the 2029 150,000-qubit goal will be important milestones.

✍️ Quantum Index Analysis

The notable point about Diraq’s selection for Stage C is that the company’s highly ambitious qubitqubitQubit / Quantum Bit / QubitThe basic unit of information in a quantum computer. It can represent not only 0 or 1 but also a quantum state that is a superposition of them.QI NoteHaving more qubits does not necessarily mean higher performance. Error rates, connectivity, coherence time, and the number of logical qubits are also important.-scaling roadmap will now be subject to independent DARPA validation.

Diraq uses a silicon spin qubit approach that can leverage existing semiconductor manufacturing. While it has demonstrated coherent operation of an 8-qubit array manufactured in a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process, the company targets 150,000 physical qubitsphysical qubitsPhysical Qubit / Physical QubitIndividual qubits that are physically created and manipulated on a quantum processor. They are also used to form logical qubits.QI NoteA large number of physical qubits does not by itself indicate practical computational capability. Error rates, connectivity, and the number of physical qubits required per logical qubit are also important. by 2029 and more than 2 million physical qubits on a single chip by 2031.

Diraq’s qubit development record and roadmap

Time	Physical qubit count	Status	Main details
2026	8	Demonstrated	Coherent operation of a qubit array manufactured in a 300 mm CMOS-compatible process
2029	150,000	Development target	Scaling using semiconductor manufacturing infrastructure
2031	Over 2,000,000	Development target	High-density integration on a single chip

* The 8-qubit demonstration does not mean the array could run arbitrary quantum circuits or fault-tolerant algorithms across all 8 qubits. The 2029 and 2031 figures are future targets.

Compatibility with standard semiconductor manufacturing is a major strength for Diraq. However, being able to fabricate qubits at high density and being able to operate them with high fidelity are separate challenges. For silicon spin qubits, device-to-device variability, control-signal crosstalk, and heat dissipation from control electronics at millikelvin temperatures can impede scaling. Moreover, correlated errors that emerge with high-density integration can degrade quantum error correctionquantum error correction量子誤り訂正 / Quantum Error Correction / QECA technique that distributes information across multiple physical qubits and detects and corrects errors without directly disturbing the quantum state.QI NoteSimply implementing it does not automatically provide practical fault tolerance. What matters is whether the logical error rate is improved relative to the physical error rate. performance. Even if semiconductor techniques allow integration of millions of qubits, there is no guarantee that computational performance will scale accordingly.

In this context, a comparison with Atom Computing, which was selected for the same Stage C, is instructive. The neutral-atom approachneutral-atom approachNeutral Atom Quantum Computer / Neutral Atom Quantum Computer / Neutral-Atom Quantum ComputingA quantum computing approach that traps and arranges neutral (uncharged) atoms using lasers or similar methods and uses their quantum states as qubits.QI NoteA characteristic is that many atoms can be arranged in a regular pattern relatively easily. When comparing performance, one should check not only the number of atoms but also gate fidelity, reconfiguration (rearrangement), and loss rates. used by Atom Computing has already demonstrated systems exceeding 1,200 physical qubits and has shown progress on quantum error correction. By contrast, Diraq’s published demonstrations so far are limited to an 8-qubit array, leaving a significant gap in system scale. That said, DARPA’s evaluation focuses not on current qubit counts but on whether the development plan can plausibly reach “utility scale” by 2033—i.e., deliver computational value that outweighs construction and operation costs.

Why did DARPA select both Diraq, at an 8-qubit stage, and Atom Computing, with systems exceeding 1,200 qubits, for the same Stage C? Each approach faces different technical challenges and different future manufacturing and operational cost profiles. DARPA appears to have judged that Diraq’s strategy of rapid scaling leveraging CMOS manufacturing warrants independent evaluation, but that judgment is not proof the strategy will succeed.

Diraq is slated to receive US$51 million in first-year funding, which will accelerate expansion of research facilities and test environments. What will matter in upcoming evaluations is not just increasing qubit counts but how gate fidelities and manufacturing yields change with scale, the extensibility of control systems, error-correction performance including correlated errors, and the total system cost. Can qubits that are manufacturable at semiconductor scale be turned into qubits usable in a quantum computer? The answer to that question will determine the success of Diraq’s roadmap.

NETWORKSee Diraq’s industry network →

Related coverage

• Quantinuum secures US$100 million R&D contract under the U.S. CHIPS Act
• Rigetti finalizes US$100 million contract with U.S. Commerce Department to strengthen readout, cooling, and manufacturing for scaling
• Xanadu opens an advanced photonics manufacturing facility in Toronto, pursuing vertical integration from NISQ to FTQC

Source

Read the original announcement